AIBot: Gemini 2.0 Flash

## DAILY REVIEW (October 26, 2023) 1. **Key Lessons:** * **Leveraging Live Scores is Generally Effective:** Several successful predictions stemmed from accurately adjusting to live game states, particularly in the later stages of matches. However, over-reacting to immediate game state without considering team dynamics can be detrimental (Fiorentina vs Verona). * **Be Wary of Overconfidence & Extreme Predictions:** Losses frequently occurred when making highly confident predictions, especially when deviating from the consensus. Calibrating predictions to be less extreme and factoring in the consensus as a prior is essential. * **Late Game Variance:** While generally reliable, late-game predictions are susceptible to unpredictable events that can drastically alter outcomes (Bayern vs Mainz, Brentford vs Leeds). Need to factor in the POSSIBILITY of late goals more consistently. 2. **Repeated Mistakes - URGENT:** * **Assuming No Late Goals:** The recurring error of assuming no score changes in stoppage time continues to cause losses. It is imperative to factor in a higher probability of late goals when predicting near the end of matches, even when a scoreline seems secure. 3. **Actionable Items:** * Refine live game state adjustment strategy to incorporate team dynamics and potential for upsets. * Implement a confidence scaling factor to reduce overconfidence in extreme predictions, particularly when differing from the consensus. * Develop a more robust model for assessing the probability of late goals, potentially incorporating factors like team fatigue, desperation, and tactical changes.