Terms of Service
Last Updated: December 2025
1Introduction & Acceptance
By accessing or using PredictionArenas ("the Platform"), you agree to be bound by these Terms of Service ("Terms"). If you do not agree to these Terms, you may not use the Platform.
PredictionArenas is a skill-based prediction arena. Players compete to demonstrate superior forecasting ability against our proprietary AI Gatekeeper.
2Definitions
3Nature of Service
Skill-Based Competition
PredictionArenas is a skill-based competition platform. Users purchase access to play in specific events. Any payments made to users are Performance Bounties (Prizes) for demonstrating superior skill by beating the Gatekeeper Bot.
Transaction Structure:
- • Money In (Game Pass): Payment for entry into the competitive arena for an event. This transaction is complete upon access.
- • Money Out (Bounty): Prize distribution for Winners who outscore the AI Gatekeeper. This is a merit-based reward for skill.
4Analyst Status & Relationship
By using this Platform, you acknowledge that you are acting as an Independent Playerparticipating in a skill game. You are not an employee or contractor of PredictionArenas. You are paying for entertainment and the opportunity to win prizes based on your skill.
Your relationship with PredictionArenas is that of an independent contractor. You are responsible for your own tax obligations and compliance with local laws in your jurisdiction.
5Forecast Submission Agreement
By Submitting a Forecast, You Acknowledge:
- ✓Your prediction data belongs to the Platform on an anonymized basis
- ✓All forecasts must be your own original work and genuine skill
- ✓Performance Bounties are only paid to winners who defeat the Gatekeeper
6Payment Terms
Free Starter Credits
Upon registration, each new Analyst receives 100 BTS free credits. These credits are automatically credited and have no expiry. They may be used for Match Pass purchases. Free credits cannot be withdrawn as cash.
Data Pass Fees (Optional)
Additional Data Pass purchases are non-refundable. The fee grants access to software and data tools regardless of whether you submit forecasts or earn Performance Bounties. Partial participation does not entitle you to partial refunds.
Performance Bounties
Performance Bounties are paid at the sole discretion of PredictionArenas. Eligibility requires achieving a higher score than the Gatekeeper Bot and compliance with all Platform rules.
• Full Distribution: 100% of the allocated Bounty pool for an event is distributed among the Forecasters who outperform the Gatekeeper. The Platform (including the Gatekeeper) takes zero share of these funds.
• Winner-Take-All Scenarios: If only one Forecaster outperforms the Gatekeeper, that individual is eligible for 100% of the allocated Bounty.
• The Benchmark Exclusion: The Gatekeeper maintains a share of the Bounty ONLY in the event that if outperforms all human participants.
Bounty amounts are determined by Platform algorithms based on relative performance and are not guaranteed or promised in advance.
7Prohibited Conduct
You agree NOT to:
- Create multiple accounts (Sybil attacks)
- Use automated systems to submit forecasts without authorization
- Collude with other Analysts to manipulate consensus
- Attempt to reverse-engineer Platform algorithms
- Submit forecasts based on non-public information obtained through illegal means
- Use the Platform from jurisdictions where such use is prohibited
Violation of these terms may result in immediate account termination, forfeiture of pending Bounties, and permanent ban from the Platform.
8Limitation of Liability
THE PLATFORM IS PROVIDED "AS IS" WITHOUT WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND. PREDICTIONARENAS SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES.
Our total liability to you for any claims arising from your use of the Platform shall not exceed the total amount you have paid to us in the 12 months preceding the claim.
9Governing Law & Disputes
These Terms shall be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of England and Wales. Any disputes arising under these Terms shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of England and Wales.
10Purchase Terms
Match Data Passes
A Pass grants access to forecast data, forecaster skill level data, and analytics for a specific event.
The price of a Pass is determined dynamically based on the number of analysts who have already joined. Early participants benefit from lower entry costs.
Passes start at 50 Beats and increase as the Arena fills.
All passes are non-refundable once purchased. Access is granted immediately upon successful payment.
Refund Policy
All purchases (Match Data Passes) are non-refundable. You receive immediate access to data and analytics upon purchase. Purchases are deducted from your account balance, which can be topped up via secure payment methods.
11Game Rules & Mechanics
Eligibility & Accounts
- You must be 18 years or older to participate in the Arena.
- Only one account per player is permitted. Multi-accounting ("sybil attacks") will result in an immediate ban.
- You must provide accurate information to receive Performance Bounties.
Gameplay Rules
- Unlimited Updates: You may modify your forecast as often as you like while the Market is live.
- Late Entry: You may enter an Arena after the event has started, though Data Pass prices may be higher.
- Precision: Forecasts are made using decimal points (e.g., 2.1) to allow for granular accuracy rankings.
- Arena Solidarity: Players are encouraged to use the Arena Chat to discuss strategy. Collusion against the Platform is a feature, not a bug.
Cancellations & Postponements
While general Data Pass purchases are non-refundable, specific exceptions apply for event cancellations:
- If a match/event is officially cancelled or postponed indefinitely, your Data Pass credits (Beats) for that event will be automatically refunded to your account balance.
- This refund does not apply to "completed" events where you simply failed to win a Bounty.
ATechnical Appendix: Scoring & Mechanics
System Constants & Formulas
Standard Scoring Formula (ACT Model)
Score = Accuracy × Conviction × Time × 100
// Prediction Conviction (M_Conv)
1 + (deviation / (ErrorScalar + StDev)²)
// Time Commitment (M_Time)
min(1.5, log10(minutes_held + 1))
// R-Score Skill Weighting
Weight = μ / σ²
Rating System (Modified Glicko-2)
- μ (Mu): Represents the Analyst's skill rating. All new accounts are initialized at 1500. This value increases when an Analyst outperforms the consensus and decreases when they underperform.
- σ (Sigma): Represents the system's uncertainty in the Analyst's rating. This value decreases as more data points (Forecasts) are collected.
- Σ (StDev): The weighted spread of all active Signals in a given Arena. This measures the dispersion of Analyst sentiment and dampens the Conviction bonus.
- M_Time: Time Commitment multiplier. Rewards Analysts for the duration they hold an accurate position. This eliminates the "fastest finger" advantage by rewarding long-term conviction over reaction speed.
The Gatekeeper Logic
The Level 2 Gatekeeper Bot utilizes a dynamic optimization algorithm. It is programmed to update its Signal every 5 minutes if it identifies an opportunity to increase its potential score by a minimum of 5%. The Gatekeeper acts as a non-human benchmark to ensure distributed Performance Bounties reward genuine signal over noise.
Consensus Methodology
Arena Consensus is a skill-weighted average of all active Signals. Individual contribution to the Consensus is determined by the formula μ / σ². Signals from Analysts with a Rating (μ) below 1000 are programmatically excluded from Consensus calculations to maintain data integrity.
Market Updates & Data Slippage
Live Market Warning: All Arena data (including Consensus, Divergence, and projected scores) updates in real-time.
Due to network latency or rapid market activity, the values displayed on your screen may differ slightly from the system state at the moment your forecast is processed ("Slippage"). Your forecast will always be scored based on the confirmed system state at the timestamp of submission, which may result in a slightly different Conviction Score than estimated.
Contact
For questions about these Terms, please contact us at legal@predictionarenas.com